Why Turkey Seeks A Bigger Footprint In Africa

Recently, the third Turkey-Africa Partnership Summit was held in Istanbul from 16 to 19 December. The first Turkey-Africa Partnership Summit was held in Istanbul, the second in Malabo. Over 100 government ministers and 16 presidents from Africa attended the summit, which was held under the theme, ‘Enhanced Partnership for Common Development and Prosperity’.

Africa — Market Of The Future

Cooperation between Ankara and Africa, which is steadily increasing, is of vital importance to Turkey. Trade volume between Turkey and Africa is enormous.

Economist Guven Sak of the Turkish Institute for Economic Policy (TEPAV) in a recent interview said “Continental Africa has the world’s youngest population and also its fastest population growth.” According to United Nations estimates, Africa’s population will have at least tripled by 2100, growing to over four billion. Sak sees expanded relations as a natural result of investment opportunities in the areas of urban infrastructure, logistics, energy and construction besides the fact that Africa is extremely rich — both in traditional as well as renewable energy resources.

A Growing Network Of Ties

Relations between the two regions kicked-off on a positive note and improved dramatically since Ankara declared 2005 “Africa Year.” Turkey’s central government realised that lucrative business opportunities were to be found in industrial production and construction. In addition Turkish businesses and non-governmental organisations, especially those working in the education sector, established a presence on the continent.

Growing business ties also resulted in improved diplomatic ties. Turkey has been a “strategic partner” to the African Union since 2008, conducting meetings with African heads of state and government.

Military Cooperation

Security ties between Turkey and the continent have also increased considerably since Erdogan came to power in 2014. Somalia, Turkey’s doorway to sub-Saharan Africa, has been the site of TURKSOM — Turkey’s largest overseas military base — since 2017.

Therefore, arms exports were a big topic at the Istanbul summit. Turkish arms and aeronautics exports to Ethiopia, for instance, shot from around $235,000 in January to nearly $94.6 million in November according to the Turkish Exporters’ Assembly. Sales to Angola, Chad and Morocco have seen similar jumps.

One of Turkey’s best-selling items is the Bayraktar TB2 combat and surveillance drone. It has been used in a number of conflicts and has proven itself highly effective. Reuters recently reported that Morocco and Tunisia took delivery of Turkish combat drones in September, adding that a large number of other African nations have also voiced their interest as well.

Turkey’s trade with Africa surpassed $25.3 billion last year, and this figure has already reached $30 billion in the first 11 months of 2021.

Africa’s Potential

With the area it covers on the international level, its geo-strategic position, and the economic and commercial potential it has, Africa has become one of the most important actors of the 21st century. The advantageous investment opportunities it has as a continent and the relations it recently developed with different countries and regions have begun to make Africa a centre of attraction in all areas.

The president of the African Union in his address called for a sturdy collaboration between Africa and Turkey against terrorism, and that sustaining peace and safety on the continent is vital for attaining maintainable development.

Talking about the summit, Felix Tshisekedi, ruler of the Democratic Republic of Congo, confirmed Africa’s trust in Turkey’s proficiency in several fields, stating: “Africa needs concrete projects in the areas of trade, infrastructure, agricultural development, governance, and health.”

He stated, “In some parts of Africa, unfortunately, there is instability and insecurity due to terrorist activities. Therefore, it is a must to ensure peace and security in order to move forward,” emphasising the necessity for collaboration in the face of terrorism.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also called for African representation at the UNSC. At the summit he said it is a “great injustice” that the African continent, with its population of 1.3 billion, is not represented at the UN Security Council.

Referring to his slogan, “the world is bigger than five,” protesting the unrepresentative setup of the UN Security Council, Erdogan said Turkey’s efforts were also meant for its brothers and sisters in Africa, as well.

Bilateral Ties Boosted

The summit also helped Turkey in reviving old ties with nations like Egypt and Libya.

Egypt and Turkey are two regional heavyweights. They used to be good partners but broke off all diplomatic ties in 2013 following a military coup that overthrew Egypt’s first democratically-elected government, led by the Muslim Brotherhood – an Islamist movement close to Ankara. Egypt’s Deputy Foreign Minister Hamdi Sanad Loza, who attended the summit said that participating countries would contribute to regional development, stability and security. Loza also discussed cooperation between Turkey and Egypt in the sectors of trade, investment and tourism.

After eight years of frozen relations, the two countries launched discussions in Cairo in May to renew ties. A second round of talks took place in September in Ankara but embassies were not reopened. The Turkish foreign minister also met with acting Speaker Fawzi al-Nuwari of Libya’s House of Representatives.

Turkey’s Alternate Vision

Africa, which was associated with poverty, civil wars and migration in the past, is one of the world’s up-and-coming regions in the 21st century. China, Russia, France, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and India have a strong presence in Africa together with Turkey. Yet Turkey’s vision for Africa represents an “alternative” to the current practices of former and new colonial powers.

Western nations are charged with sticking to their old colonialist ways. For example, France cannot get rid of its shameful baggage in the continent. Meanwhile, experts warn that China sets a “debt trap” in the name of economic development. Russia’s role as a “provider of security,” in turn, is a source of concern. Consequently, Turkey’s vision, which originated in humanitarian aid and rests firmly on the principles of equality, mutual benefits and “winning together,” attracts more and more interest.

Unlike Western countries, Turkey continues to strengthen and diversify its policy, which aims to ensure security, stability and welfare in the rising star of our century, Africa, in all dimensions. Turkey has deepened its economic, commercial and political relations with Africa with the “African Initiative”. This initiative is “win-win” centred and based on mutual benefits with the principle of “developing together and growing together.” The vision reflects Turkey’s commitment to see Africa from an African perspective and to promote mutual development, beneficial to both.

Turkey’s Entry Into Kabul Carries Risks

The proposal made by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to US President Joe Biden last month on the sidelines of a NATO summit that Turkey could undertake the security of the Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul after NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan could be a bargaining chip for improving Ankara’s relationship with Washington but given the resurgence of the Taliban it could turn into a nightmare in the long run, unless it is handled very skillfully and with the utmost caution.

Erdogan told Biden that Turkey could run security at the airport if the US provided it with the necessary “diplomatic, logistical and financial support.”Ankara wants to collaborate with Pakistan and Hungary in this task. In their first face to face meeting, Erdogan and Biden did not make much progress on the main disputes that have poisoned Turkish-US relations in recent years, but Erdogan indicated that there is a possible consensus on Afghanistan.

Ankara’s proposal to secure Kabul’s airport, after the withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan by August 31, raises questions about the risks it is prepared to take, what logistical and other support is going to get from the US for the whole operation, what the Biden administration is prepared to do on the contentious issues between Ankara and Washington and what actual support Turkey may be given on the ground. Moreover, Turkey must take seriously into account the risks involved in the whole operation and the possibility of having to confront other regional players, like Pakistan, Russia, Iran, and China.

It is highly probable that all these regional powers would prefer to deal with a domestic actor — the Taliban — or a new government that might emerge, rather than Turkey.

On July 9 Turkish President Erdogan said that an agreement has been reached over the post-withdrawal Kabul airport security. He added:”Our Defense Minister met with the US Defense Secretary, and we had a meeting with US and NATO to discuss the future of the Hamid Karzai International Airport. We decided on what we accept in this respect and which conditions we don’t agree upon.”

The Afghan government immediately welcomed the move. The Civil Aviation Authority on Sunday said that a new defense system has been activated at Hamid Karzai International Airport.

The Taliban on Sunday announced its opposition to the agreement between the US and Turkey. A spokesman for the group stressed that the Taliban are against the presence of any foreign troops after the given deadline for their withdrawal from Afghanistan. “If they remain within the framework of NATO or Turkey or any other country, it will not be acceptable both for the people of Afghanistan and for the Taliban,” former Taliban commander Sayed Akbar Agha said.

Turkey has about 500 troops in Afghanistan as part of a non-combat NATO mission. Its soldiers never had any direct conflict with the Taliban, while maintaining good relations with all ethnic groups in Afghanistan. They were mainly involved in the training of Afghan security forces, while some still serve, together with Hungarian soldiers, at the Kabul airport. The hard question for Turkey is how it could assume responsibility for the security of the airport, embassies and critical facilities in Kabul without conducting military policing and patrolling, which are clearly combat tasks.

As Afghanistan is a landlocked mountainous country, the Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul offers a vital connection to the outside world and is generally considered to be a prerequisite for the operation of diplomatic missions in the country and for the delivery of international humanitarian aid. If the Airport does not remain open and operating, embassies in Kabul will be withdrawn and Afghanistan will become an isolated state. Last May, Australia, citing security fears, closed its embassy in the country.

Taliban’s rejection cannot be lightheartedly ignored by Ankara, as according to several reports the Taliban controls nearly half of the 400 districts in Afghanistan, while a Taliban delegation in Russia claimed that 85 percent of Afghan territory was under the group’s control.

NATO’s former senior civilian representative for Afghanistan and former Turkish Foreign Minister, Hikmet Cetin, told Al Jazeera: “While Taliban’s political wing is in favour of reconciliation, the military wing is chasing a military victory. Otherwise, nothing will have changed there in the last 19 years. Yet far more hinges on Turkey reaching an accord with the Taliban, which is steadily advancing towards the capital and has made clear it will not tolerate any foreign forces on Afghan soil after the US leaves…Afghanistan is now in the midst of a de facto civil war. Turkey needs a ceasefire and a deal with the Taliban, which is now telling it: ‘You came with Nato, and you’ll leave with Nato’. Without the Taliban’s approval, Turkey assuming this role is a mistake. It’s too risky.”

Another serious problem, Turkey may face in Afghanistan, is the lack of cooperation and open hostility prevailing among the various ethnic groups existing in the country and the dreaded possibility that it could be forced to support one or more against the others.

As Al-Monitor columnist Metin Gurcan says: “The Taliban hail predominantly from Pashtun groups that have been extremely hostile to other ethnicities in Afghanistan. Turkey might face a dilemma on whether to align with non-Pashtun and Turkic groups or the dominant Pashtun groups. This may sound like a minor issue, but it was one of the essential causes of the US failure in Afghanistan. So, Ankara needs to think twice and be aware that Afghanistan is not Syria, Libya or Nagorno-Karabakh and is not called a “graveyard of empires” without reason.” (ANI)